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House Price Growth Makes a Strong Start to 2022

Nationwide has reported that annual house price growth increased to 11.2% in January, from 10.4% in December, representing an increase of 0.8% month-on-month. The annual increase in January is also the strongest start to the year since 2005.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, says: “Housing demand has remained robust. Mortgage approvals for house purchase have continued to run slightly above pre-pandemic levels, despite the surge in activity in 2021 as a result of the stamp duty holiday, which encouraged buyers to bring forward their transactions to avoid additional tax.

“Indeed, the total number of property transactions in 2021 was the highest since 2007 and around 25% higher than in 2019, before the pandemic struck. At the same time, the stock of homes on estate agents’ books has remained extremely low, which is contributing to the continued robust pace of house price growth.”

Reduced affordability going into 2022
“While the outlook remains uncertain, it is likely that the housing market will slow this year”, says Gardener. “House price growth has outstripped earnings growth by a wide margin since the pandemic struck and, as a result, housing affordability has become less favourable. For example, a 10% deposit on a typical first-time buyer home is now equivalent to 56% of total gross annual earnings, a record high. Similarly, a typical mortgage payment as a share of take-home pay is now above the long run average, despite mortgage rates remaining close to all-time lows.

“Reduced affordability is likely to exert a dampening impact on market activity and house price growth, especially since household finances are also coming under pressure from sharp increases in the cost of living.

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