The November 2019 UK Cities House Price Index, from Hometrack, has revealed that property prices in the largest UK cities have increased at an annual average rate of 4.4% per annum throughout the past decade.
While price falls in the latter part of 2018 suppressed the annual growth rate, these have dropped out of the annual growth calculation and explain the increase in the current annual rate of growth.
The outlook for 2020 will be driven by affordability factors, according to Richard Donnell, director of research and insight at Hometrack, who added: “We expect city house prices to increase by +3% over 2020 with above average growth in the most affordable cities and below average growth in cities across London and southern England.
“UK city house price inflation has averaged 4.4% per annum over the last decade with average prices up by total of 54% since 2009. The headline rate of growth currently averages 3.4%, supported by price falls in the final months of 2018 dropping out of the annual growth rate and a further pick-up in growth in London. Price growth now ranges from -0.7% in Aberdeen to +5.4% in Edinburgh.”
Marked difference in current and long run growth
Donnell continued: “There is a marked difference between the current and 10-year growth rates across UK cities. Cities in southern England have registered a marked slowdown in price inflation over the last 1-3 years with current growth rates well below the 10-year average in cities like Oxford, Southampton, Portsmouth, London, Cambridge and Bristol.