As New Zealand’s housing market faces a record high in property listings and hesitant buyer activity, experts say it will take a substantial surge in sales to clear the backlog and spark a meaningful price recovery.

October marked the eighth consecutive month of price declines, with CoreLogic reporting a 0.5% dip from the previous month. ANZ Bank noted that with transaction volumes at a low and sale times extending, the market remains in a holding pattern, with little movement expected until 2025.

“A sustained increase in house prices will require a meaningful lift in sales volumes to clear the backlog of listings in the market,” ANZ’s chief New Zealand economist Sharon Zollner said, adding that while prices could stabilise around year-end, any real recovery may not appear until 2025.

Buyers remain cautious amid economic headwinds, including stalled growth and rising unemployment, even though the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered interest rates by 75 basis points since August 2024.