Judging by China’s official statistics, the nation’s housing market has been remarkably resilient in the face of slow economic growth and record defaults by developers. Government figures show that new-home prices have fallen just 2.4% from a high in August 2021, while those for existing homes have dropped 6%. 

But the picture emerging from property agents and private data providers is far more dire, according to a report by fortune.com, which creates the Fortune 500 annual list of the largest corporations in the US.

The report estimates that existing-home prices in China are falling at least 15% in prime neighbourhoods of major metropolitan areas like Shanghai and Shenzhen, as well as in more than half of China’s tier-2 and tier-3 cities. Existing homes in Hangzhou have dropped about 25% from late 2021 highs, according to local agents.

Analysts say the government’s price methodology, which partly relies on surveys rather than price data from transactions, helps authorities to smooth the trend and to avoid large price swings.

Unlike in many parts of the world, Chinese authorities do not publicly disclose home prices after the transaction settles. In 2021, the statistics bureau responded to concerns regarding the official home-price index, saying it is able to “generally” reflect changes in supply and demand in the property market, according to a statement on its website.