According to a poll conducted by Reuters at the Cityscape Dubai property conference, residential property prices in Dubai are likely to fall another -10% in 2009 as financial woes linger.

The view is that unlike more mature markets in the UK and the US, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) real estate sector is not yet showing signs of recovery. Residential property has not yet bottomed out and has a 20% chance of picking up before 2011, according to the Reuters poll.

Around 22% said they expected Dubai property prices to hit a bottom in Q4 2009 and 44% predicted this would occur in the first half of 2010 and 22% thought in the second half of 2010. Some 11% expected prices to reach a bottom in 2011 or later. Prices in Dubai are expected to have fallen by -50% by the end of 2009 and by -60% by 2010.


The Reuters poll also found that residential rents in Dubai are seen falling by -45% by the end of 2009 and a further -10% in 2010. Three out of seven respondents expected rents to fall as much as -50% in 2009 and one by 30% in 2010.

In addition, the first ever Arabian Business Think Tank, a group of nine experts that will vote each month on major business issues in the region, said the panel voted 7-2 against any rise in residential property prices in the fourth quarter of 2009. It predicted that the UAE’s property market will continue its downward spiral into the rest of the year.