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Don’t expect a Brexit bounce to gain a foothold until 2021, says Savills

Savills has just released its Annual Residential Property Forecast, in which it stated that amid Brexit uncertainty, “fixing the assumptions on which to base them has been like nailing jelly to a wall.”

The firm added: “As we publish our forecasts, we know we face a general election on 12 December. Polls currently suggest there is a reasonable prospect that the Conservatives will regain enough of a majority to get the current Brexit deal over the line by 31 January.

“This would suggest that the UK avoids an economic recession, providing the platform for house price growth once households have more certainty on the outlook for their household finances. The flip side is the prospect of a long-anticipated, gradual increase in interest rates. This will progressively squeeze affordability at the point of getting a mortgage, especially in London and parts of the South East.”

Savills concluded: “On these assumptions, we are forecasting the average price of a UK home will rise by 15% over five years, with a Brexit-bounce only gaining a real foothold at the end of the transition period. We do so knowing that there will be substantial variation across different parts of the market.”

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