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Uncertainty leads to downturn in UK Commercial Market property cycle

The Brexit impasse is contributing to perceptions that the UK Commercial Property Market is in the downturn phase of the property cycle, according to the Q3 2019 RICS UK Commercial Property Market Survey.

The latest results show the highest proportion of respondents sensing the overall market is in the downturn phase of the property cycle since the series began in 2015 (+62% up from +53% in Q2), with anecdotal evidence suggesting that Brexit is having an increasingly detrimental impact on market activity. 

In the occupier market, tenant demand reportedly fell at the headline level once again, with the net balance slipping to -19%, from -13% previously. Once again, the retail sector continues to drive the overall decline (net balance -60% compared to -59% in Q2). However, demand for office space also fell during Q3, (net balance of -9% compared to -4% in Q2). Demand for industrial space continued to rise, and was the only sector to see any growth, although the increase was marginal, as the net balance came in at +9% (down from +20% in Q2).

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