A no-deal Brexit would lead to a 30% increase in mortgage arrears over the next three years and a 17% drop in mortgage lending over a five-year period, according to data analysis by Kensington Mortgages.

Using its proprietary risk modelling tool, Vector, Kensington tested a series of scenarios based on a representative data set of 750,000 loans (with an outstanding value of £97.2bn) across the UK mortgage lending market.

Working on the assumption of a no-deal Brexit, with no government intervention, the model shows that there would be a sharp increase in the number of borrowers who would likely fall more than three months behind on their repayments.

The modelling predicts the number of borrowers in arrears would be 30% higher than it would if Britain were to remain in the European Union. This would mean that by spring 2022 there would be 70,296 Britons more than three months behind on mortgage repayments, compared to 52,755 if Britain were to remain in the EU. Repossessions would also rise by about 10%, according to Kensington projections.