LCP has analysed HMRC’s Quarterly Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) Statistics for Q3 2018 compared with Q3 2017. This provides an accurate barometer of current market strength taking into account seasonality. It also adds back transactions and receipts from the Welsh Revenue Authority (as Wales has been omitted from the HMRC SDLT report data since Q2 2018).

The data revealed that transactions in England, Wales and Northern Ireland have fallen 4% in Q3 2018 compared with Q3 2017 and now stand at 290,740. They are also down 8.7% on three years ago (Q3 2015).

Tax receipts for Q3 2018 are down 8.2% on Q3 2017 and now stand at £2,392m (a fall of £213m). This is the third consecutive quarterly fall with a combined total of £685m in lost revenue compared with the first three quarters of 2017.

Higher Rate for Additional Dwellings (HRAD) receipts (i.e. just the additional 3% SDLT on second homes), has fallen by 12.7% since Q3 2017 and now stands at £454m. This is due to a 14.2% fall in HRAD transactions since Q3 2017.