The average UK broker believes house prices have -9.2% further to fall, according to Exact Mortgage Experts’ latest white paper.

Exact polled 539 mortgage intermediaries as part of its research into the future performance of UK house prices. Some 22% of brokers were less positive, believing we will see further house price deflation of between 10-20% before we reach the bottom of the market.

Around 72%, the largest proportion of brokers surveyed, think house prices will continue on a downward path for the next six to 12 months. When asked about their clients’ sentiment, 57% of brokers said borrowers believed house prices had not troughed yet.

Alan Cleary, managing director of Exact Mortgage Experts, said, “Housing market commentators would have us believe green shoots have been springing up everywhere, but for those in the know about the UK mortgage market, sentiment hasn’t turned yet. House prices can’t recover until the mortgage market is fixed, and that’s some way off. Without the wholesale money markets, there isn’t enough cash to fund the kind of house buying which drove prices up in the past.”

Exact’s white paper research also revealed that 44% of brokers do not see lenders increasing their volume of lending for at least six to 12 months. Some 31% of brokers believed it more likely that lending volumes would take between a year and 18 months to improve.

Cleary added: “Gross lending is on track to hit around £150bn this year – that’s less than half the size of the mortgage market at its peak. Demand for housing may be growing, but without mortgage funding, the normal rules of supply and demand won’t come into play. Until lenders ease up their criteria and start to offer finance more freely, the lack of action in the housing market will push house prices down further. I’m expecting a 37% peak-to-trough fall.”