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House price growth is negative and supply is tight

Surveyors from The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) have reported that house price growth remained negative for the fourth month in succession, but supply remains tight.

In November 40.6% more chartered surveyors reported a fall rather than a rise in house prices, which is down from 23.4% in October. This is the most negative since May 2005, when 49% more chartered surveyors reported a fall than a rise.

In addition, 6% more chartered surveyors reported a fall than a rise in new instructions to sell property up from 17% in October. However, new buyer enquiries improved for the first time in 12 months with 31% more chartered surveyors reporting a fall than a rise which is up from 41% in October. Some would-be buyers have started to test the resolve of many sellers who might be feeling the pinch of successive interest rises but many have been prevented by moving forward by tightening mortgage lending criteria. In fact, the balance of newly agreed sales declined at the fastest pace since April 1999 (when the question was first asked) when 36% more chartered surveyors reported a fall rather than a rise in newly agreed sales.

Surveyors reported price falls across all regions in England and Wales. This was particularly visible in the East and West Midlands. In Northern Ireland, surveyors reported broadly based price declines. Scotland was the only region in the survey where surveyors reported a positive trend in house prices.

Jeremy Leaf, RICS spokesman, said: “It is clear that the housing market continues to feel the strain of depressed market conditions. The recent credit crunch continues to hit confidence in the market, with chartered surveyors feeling the most pessimistic about price expectations since 1998.

“However, while underlying economic fundamentals remain sound and the labour market remains strong, large falls in prices remain unlikely. Employment would have to fall sharply before enough supply entered the market to create a significant dip.”

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