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Effects of house price acceleration

According to Nationwide, pace of house price growth almost doubled during April to 0.9%, up from 0.5% in March.

This brings the annual rate of inflation back into double digits at 10.2% and the price of a typical house up to £180,314 which is £16,741 higher than at this time last year. The Bank of England held off raising rates at the beginning of April but the acceleration in house prices during the month makes a rate rise look a certainty.

Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide’s chief economist, said: “However, while the monthly rise in prices is stronger than the Monetary Policy Committee would have liked to see, it can take some comfort from the fact that the underlying trend is softening and the return to double-digit annual growth largely reflects this time last year. The three-monthly growth rate, which smoothes the volatility of the monthly series, is still cooling in response to the earlier rises in interest rates. The latest figures show prices increased by 2% between February and April, the lowest three-monthly growth rates since August.”

Earley believes that the talk of rates climbing to 6% and beyond are overblown, and if implemented in the current climate could be damaging to housing market stability. “With the market already showing signs of cooling, too sharp a rate hike could undermine market confidence and dry demand up swiftly”, she says. “But on top of this, they could also lead to widespread payment difficulties which, in an illiquid market, could precipitate price falls.”

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