Business Monitor International has published a new (69 page) report assessing the prospects for the next wave of potential candidates for EU membership, and the challenges they face in achieving this goal within the next decade.
BMI, which was kind enough to forward a copy of the report to PIN, states: ‘While support for the EU may be at record lows among Western European member states, the desire to achieve EU membership status for many of the trade bloc’s eastern neighbours remains as strong as ever. At the same time, following Croatia’s accession in July 2013, most of the ‘low hanging fruit’ has now been picked, with all the remaining hopefuls a long way from meeting the non-negotiable ‘acquis’ (conditions) required for membership. In short, countries which still want to join the EU will have to work extra hard to demonstrate they meet the accession criteria.’
The report offers in-depth country-level analysis to assess which economies are best placed to become EU members within the next decade. Below is a brief summary.
The unlikely candidates
BMI reports: ‘We have opted not to include Turkey, in part because it lacks many of the characteristics shared by other EU hopefuls, but also because we see very limited chance of Turkey achieving EU membership in the foreseeable future. We also exclude Iceland for similar reasons.’
Most likely
‘In terms of countries we do examine in this report, we believe Montenegro and Serbia have the best hopes of agreeing accession within the next decade. Macedonia, Moldova and Georgia, in our view, have the best prospects for furthering Euro-Atlantic integration, although EU accession will be beyond them over this timeframe.
‘As for the other Balkan countries with EU aspirations - Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo - we expect slow, steady but uninspiring progress towards accession, with little hope of them joining in the next decade. Not only would all three struggle to build the institutional capacity required by the acquis, but we believe there would be strong opposition from existing EU member states, many of whom are becoming less supportive of ongoing expansion.’
The report puts forward a number of likely scenarios for all member candidates. Below is a summary of the most likely scenarios for the five countries with the best chance of becoming an EU member in the future.
Montenegro – EU membership on the cards
Our core scenario for Montenegrin politics envisages the country gaining membership to the EU before the year 2020.
We believe that Montenegro presents the most compelling case for EU entry out of all the Balkan states over the next decade. In our view, the country’s ability to attract much-needed foreign direct investment will underpin efforts towards convergence with EU accession criteria. The relatively small population and open economy are advantages for the state as it continues its quest to gain EU entry.
Nevertheless, significant external environment and domestic policy challenges remain, making the country’s eventual accession far from assured.
Serbia – towards the EU
We believe that the EU could provide a major policy anchor for the Serbian government, leading to key economic and political reforms as the country moves gradually towards eventual EU accession. A concerted effort towards greater ties with the EU and eventual membership would also see Serbia forced to significantly improve its ties with Kosovo, one of the major risks to political stability.
Policy stability associated with adopting components of the EU’s mandatory reforms for membership would see Serbia’s investment risk premium fall. With greater prospect for EU membership, and thus greater access to European markets, Serbia’s attractiveness to foreign investment could greatly improve over the medium term. Greater foreign investment would improve Serbia’s economic growth prospects and present the opportunity to bring down high unemployment levels.
Macedonia - where there’s a will, there’s a way
Although full membership of the EU is currently not our baseline scenario over the course of the next 10 years, we believe that commitment by Macedonia to reform and progress in meeting the accession criteria will remain in place.
Macedonian exports have been rapidly re-orientating away from the Balkan region towards stronger demand from Germany in recent years. Continued growth in the country’s manufacturing sector will begin to attract investment and could see the economy grow more rapidly.
Moldova - gradual convergence with the West
The incentive of EU accession (should) encourage a steady improvement in the efficiency, transparency and democratic accountability of Moldova’s political institutions. Such reforms would likely bring material benefits for the population in terms of better employment prospects (through increased foreign investment) and higher standards of living, potentially prompting more of Moldova’s large diaspora to return home.
Georgia - further pro-Western and pro-market reform
The best case scenario for Georgian politics is for the relatively stable democratic system established after the Rose Revolution to remain on course. Under this scenario, institutional reforms would continue apace, driven by attempts to meet the EU accession ‘acquis’, with internationally monitored elections becoming increasingly free and fair, and corruption continuing to be eradicated.
To find out much more about the above listed countries and their prospects of joining the EU, along with what challenges Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo face in their efforts to become members, contact Business Monitor at the following website address: http://store.businessmonitor.com/eu-expansion-identifying-the-next-accession-play.html
