Investment in French commercial property rose by almost +90% to €1.7bn in the second quarter of 2009, compared to just €0.9bn in the first quarter of the year, according to a new report by real estate advisor BNP Paribas.

The increase in transaction volumes is the first in over a year of investment decline, and could be interpreted as the first sign of market recovery. However, BNP Paribas pointed out that transactional activity in the first quarter is generally lower than the rest of the year, and suggested caution in interpreting the figure too positively.

The advisor expects a progressive but moderate increase in investment volumes in the second half of the year, with a forecast investment volume of €6-7bn for the whole of 2009. This compares to the estimated €13bn and €28bn of transactional activity reported in France in 2008 and 2007 respectively.

The growth in the second quarter of 2009 was mostly attributable to the return of larger transactions. The retail sector accounted for the lion’s share of commercial property investment, reaching a third of the total investment volumes. Although prime shopping centres have been more resilient, secondary assets such as retail parks have shown a substantial slowdown, according to the advisor.