Last month, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the 2022-based household projections for England, the first update of its kind in four years. These official estimates project the number and type of households in the period 2022-2047, at both a national and local authority level. The new projections are significant because they allow us to plan for housing in the future, by setting out how many homes need to be built, and where they should be built.

According to the latest release, by 2047 there are expected to be a total of 28.9m households in England. This is an increase of 5.4m from 2022, equivalent to a 23% increase. Clearly, there will be a need to ramp up housing delivery in order to meet this significant rise in need. But perhaps more interesting is what the projections reveal about what type of households are likely to form. In 2022, the average household size in England was 2.54 persons per household. By 2047, this is expected to be only 2.24 persons per household, a significant decrease. In a number of authorities, the average household size is expected to dip below 2.00 persons per household.

The projections also detail what kind of household formations are likely. By far the household type with the most significant growth is single person households, which are expected to grow by 44% over the period 2022-2047. Conversely, households with dependent children are expected to decline by 17% over the same period. The projections also show that the number of households where the household reference person (HRP) is aged 65 or over is set to increase by 43%.

What does this tell us about planning for housing? Evidently, the number of households projected would suggest that there is pressure on the housing system to deliver an adequate scale of housing.