Let’s face it, the UK property market has always been a bit like that slightly unhinged relative at Christmas dinner - full of surprises, a touch dramatic, and utterly central to everyone’s concerns. But now, we potentially face a revaluation so fundamental, it’s less of a tweak and more of a total seismic shift. The market doesn’t DO seismic shifts, of course, and only does tweaks - even in the face of crises - so let’s see what happens.
I’m talking about the convergence of physical climate risks (think floods that make Noah’s ark look like a paddling pool, subsidence that turns your foundations into a funfair ride, and summers so hot your houseplants start spontaneously combusting) and the rather less glamorous, but equally lethal, transitional financial risks (regulatory red tape, insurance companies developing an acute case of cold feet, and Government ministers that foam at the mouth when you mention global warming).
This isn’t just a bit of market turbulence - we could see a non-linear correction in asset valuations that will fundamentally rewrite the rulebook for lenders and investors over the next three decades.
The long-term health of our housing market relies on some immediate, rather expensive adaptation measures. Luckily for landlords in certain locations - mostly the energy companies, the Government, and ultimately the taxpayer - are picking up the bill.
Immediate threats, then. By mid-century, we’re staring down the barrel of some truly eye-watering numbers. The National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk (not exactly a bedtime read, I’ll grant you) suggests that a staggering 8m properties could be at risk from rivers, the sea, or surface water. That’s right, roughly 1 in 4 properties in England will be living on borrowed time in a designated flood risk area. And that’s before we get started with the rest of the UK.





