The new Labour government’s recent proposals to raise private sector housebuilding through changes to the National Planning Policy Framework may deliver up to a total of 1.12m new homes by 2029 through the private sector, according to Centre for Cities.

The think tank’s estimates are based on historical analysis of the last 80 years of housebuilding. Historic trends show that, if private development rose to the same level as its strongest ever period of performance under the current planning system, it would still fall 388,000 homes short of delivering the Government’s 1.5m target by 2029 – a shortfall that is unlikely to be bridged in full by public sector housebuilding within the next five years, according to the report.

The under-delivery of new housing following the latest planning reforms is forecast to be largest in the big cities. Centre for Cities estimates that over four years private development would fall 196,000 new homes short in Greater London, which would be 60% below the target for the capital. In all other big cities, the should fall would be 96,000 new homes below the current target.

Using 80 years of data, the analysis shows how housebuilding is constrained by the discretionary planning system in cities and by the green belt – explicitly established to block suburban development. Neither of these is adequately addressed in the Government’s latest proposals for housing and planning.

If the private housebuilding sector is to help the country meet its target, Centre for Cities argues that the Government is faced with a choice to either scrap the green belt completely or remove the discretionary element from the planning system.