How will the economic impacts arising from the COVID-19 crisis be spread across the country? New analysis looks at the jobs predicted to be the most and least affected in the short-to-medium-term and which places are expected to bounce back more quickly.

Kathrin Enenkel, senior analyst at Centre for Cities, looked at what the likely economic fallout from the COVID-19 crisis could be and how this could play out across the country.

Enenkel said: “In the short to medium term, around a third of the jobs in cities and large towns are in industries that are expected to be severely affected. Firstly, every city has at least one in five jobs classified as either vulnerable or very vulnerable. This is because of the impact of the Government’s lockdown restrictions on local services businesses, such as retailers, restaurants and hairdressers. These businesses can be found across cities, whether they are greasy spoons or a restaurant in the Ritz, and the impact is uniform – many have had to temporarily close. Jobs in these local services businesses make up two thirds of all jobs estimated to be vulnerable or very vulnerable.

“Secondly, there is no particular geography to the most or least affected cities. Crawley is estimated to be the most exposed, with over half of its jobs either in vulnerable or very vulnerable sectors. It is followed by Luton and Derby. The least exposed cities are the southern cities of Oxford and Worthing but also the northern city of Bradford.

“The distinction across cities results from the exposure of their ‘exporting’ industries – that is those that serve regional, national or international markets, in contrast to local services businesses – to the crisis.