The Economist estimated last week that even by the most conservative measure, the global stimulus from governments in 2020 will exceed 2% of global GDP, well above the 1.5% seen in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis.

Meanwhile, a survey of economists conducted by Oxford Economics, published 27 March, found that 58% of respondents expect Covid-19 to lead to a global recession lasting for two quarters (Q2 and Q3 2020). In the same survey over half, 52%, expected a longer ‘U’ shaped recovery, with 44% anticipating a sharper ‘V’ shaped upswing. While the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases continues to rise in the UK, Oxford Economics confirmed its expectation that we may see the peak of new cases within weeks rather than months, particularly if the spread mimics the pattern seen in Asia.

Unemployment, which stood at 3.9% in December 2019, will be a key indicator to watch. Whilst Oxford Economics currently forecast the jobless rate to end 2020 at 4.9%, the latest new claims for Universal Credit, released 1st April, suggest that the unemployment rate could jump to about 5.5% in April.

Knight Frank has revised its short-term forecast for the UK’s property market. Based on the assumption that the current lockdown will remain in place through April and May, with a gradual lifting through June, the firm is predicting a decline in house sale numbers of 38% on 2019 to 734,000 transactions for the full year (2020).

Annual price growth in the UK to the end of March was 3% according to Nationwide, the highest figure in more than two years. Meanwhile, prices grew 0.2% in prime central London over the first quarter of the year, the highest figure for Q1 in five years. With the market now largely on hold, evidence of the pricing impact of Covid-19 will remain sparse.