JLL has launched its latest UK Residential forecast report “Find the gap” revealing that the future’s bright for the UK and London housing market if the UK can agree a deal with the EU on Brexit.
UK housing market – a new era of affordability
According to JLL, house prices across the UK are forecast to grow by 11.4% over the next five years with the number of annual UK housing transactions forecast to fall to 1.15m in 2019 then rise to 1.32m in 2023.
UK house price growth will be slow in the first half of 2019 towards 1% pa (from 3% pa now), but will increase to 1.5% pa during the second half of 2019 and into 2020 with London and South East first to react. Price growth will return to a more stable 3% by 2021, the firm says.
Adam Challis, head of UK residential research at JLL, comments: “The expected upswing in the market over the next five years is predicted amidst a difficult era where uncertainty surrounding Brexit has dented consumer confidence, casting a shadow over personal finances and negatively impacting the UK housing market.
“However, JLL believes that there is a 90% probability of a Brexit deal being negotiated, which will enable the UK economy to steadily improve during 2019 and into 2020. With UK earnings growth set to return to a more normal rate of 4.0% pa by 2021, real wage growth and more modest property price increases will unlock transactions that have been hampered by a lack of affordability. From 2021, we expect greater economic certainty to improve business and consumer confidence, which will lead to a more buoyant housing market and a return to growth in house prices.”