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Brexit Having Limited Impact Says Hometrack, But The BoE Disagrees

Despite Brexit dominating the headlines, Hometrack has reported that housing indicators suggest no imminent deterioration in the outlook for prices or levels of market activity in the UK. The slowdown in London since 2016 has been a result of weaker market fundamentals, the firm says, with uncertainty around Brexit simply being a compounding factor.

Hometrack estimates that UK house price inflation is currently sitting at 3.2% annually, with growth ranging from 7.7% in Leicester to -2.8% in Aberdeen. Six cities are registering growth above 6%, while London prices are falling by annually by 0.4% and over the last year the rate of growth has slowed the most in cities across southern England.

The company stated: “The impact of Brexit on housing has so far been limited. Our lead housing indicators suggest no imminent deterioration in the outlook for prices. However, uncertainty about Brexit has been a compounding factor in the slowdown of the London market, alongside weaker market fundamentals.”

Brexit impact on housing limited so far
Richard Donnell, insight director at Hometrack, said: “Two and a half years on from the Brexit vote, the headlines are dominated by the exit process. Our analysis reveals a limited direct impact from Brexit uncertainty so far. There is a continued narrowing in the size of the discount between asking and sales prices in large regional cities. Buyers are getting less than a 2% discount to asking price in Manchester while in Liverpool the discount is the smallest for five years. In addition, the number of sales agreed is increasing, keeping pace with new supply and providing support for above average price inflation.”

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