We’ve seen a fast-moving start to the year in the property market, with conditions shifting much more quickly than many expected.

Early 2026 began on a more stable footing, with signs of growth returning to the market. Buyer demand picked up, supply improved and mortgage rates dipped. This was reinforced by data from Rightmove, which showed January recorded the largest asking price increase in that month across its 25-year dataset.

Six weeks later, conditions changed.

US and Israeli strikes against Iran on 28 February pushed energy prices higher, feeding into inflation expectations and driving up swap rates, the rates lenders use to price fixed mortgages. Lenders pulled some of their lowest-priced products and repriced quickly, with cheaper deals gone within weeks of appearing. Mortgage rates rose through March, reversing much of the improvement seen at the start of the year.

More recently, the announcement of a ceasefire has helped ease some of the immediate pressure in global markets, but volatility remains. These agreements are often fragile and dependent on rapidly changing geopolitical dynamics, and markets are pricing that uncertainty in. At this stage, there is no clear indication of how long the ceasefire will hold, and until there is sustained stability, lenders are unlikely to move pricing down in any meaningful way.