It’s that time of year when spring has long sprung, and the weather has improved. We’ve almost forgotten how miserable and wet a UK winter can be! Having been through spring, we’ve had a Property Investor Show at the Excel where Property Investor News was exhibiting and I was also lucky enough to get a keynote slot on the main stage, alongside hosting a panel around whether it’s time to go big, keep calm and carry on, or go home.
The Show is a fantastic barometer for a whole bunch of things. Firstly - what’s the market like? How is the general public feeling about property? How busy is it? Then - beyond that - what is the makeup of all of the stands? How much social housing, passive versus active, property sourcing and trading, education, tax, and the likes - what’s the product mix? And then - the one I was really struck by, this time round - what’s the mix between international and domestic investment?
I think you could make two really distinct cases at the moment. Firstly - the popularised social media case. Ten, eleven, twelve thousand millionaires have left the UK this year, etc. etc. I prefer context rather than hype - so I did seek out just how many dollar millionaires there are in the UK. Over 3m! So, 12k leaving (if indeed that’s even true) is 0.4% of all the millionaires. I’m not sure how many leave each year anyway…I’m not minimising the taxation threat of the Labour party, but 99.6% staying put seems a pretty good ratio to me. Those who did leave in 2024 didn’t do it on a wing and a prayer after the October budget I don’t think - they left in anticipation, or for other reasons. A handful will be swept up in the hype of Dubai, or similar, I’m sure - but it’s a huge decision and not one that many will take lightly.
The other side is a perverse one. I’d characterise it with the old phrase “it’s better to be lucky than good.” What do I mean by that? Well, it can’t have failed to attract your attention that the USA doesn’t look like the bastion of stable outperformance that it looked like 12 months ago. With no desire to get political at all, the UK is in a strange position right now. The rule of law, private property rights and a stable regime are the highlights of the UK - plus a healthy enough property market. Democracy isn’t lauded like it once was at this time, and debt is more expensive than we would like compared to other countries. For students, the world class university system still provides plenty of temptation. However - the relative position has, without a doubt, improved significantly. The US surely looks less tempting for at least 5% of the world’s capital - to be held in the “safe haven” of the dollar? Not so sure.
