With so many potential scenarios surrounding the Brexit negotiations - no deal or ‘disorderly’ Brexit; interest rate volatility; a fall in immigration; Brexit is cancelled; a General Election results in a Labour victory, to name just a few - we’re a long way from having any certainty in the property market. At times like this it pays to turn down the volume and listen to those with the broadest overview.
According to Simon Rubinsohn, Chief Economist at RICS, ‘The structural housing crisis will not be solved overnight, whatever the outcome of Brexit. Between 160k and 300k new homes annually will need to be built over the next 25 years. However, the affordability issue is far more pressing, with property prices now around 7.8 times annual earnings, compared with 3.5 times historically.’ - source ONS*
While stretched affordability undeniably throws up challenges for developers, Rubinsohn is clear that it presents huge opportunities also. ‘Today’s first-time buyers tend to be in their 30s and 40s, with a degree of sophistication not seen before. They want imagination, quality and good design. And they want a place-making feel with communal spaces and amenity areas.’
This chimes with the Government’s 2018 Letwin Review, which criticised the ‘homogeneity’ of schemes that private developers were building, and called for ‘greater diversity and tenure’ for sites over 1500 units. ‘At last, the customer is being talked about much more,’ says Dominic Grace, Head of Residential Development at Savills, and a long-time critic of ‘vanilla developments’.