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The monthly magazine providing news analysis and professional research for the discerning private investor/landlord

Brexit, Oil, Labour Wins?

Veteran international investor John Corey comments

There are things you control and there are the macro events that happen to you. Even great plans can be thrown off course by unexpected weather, politics and international crises. You can prepare yourself for what is not planned for, yet could happen. Turn the unexpected into the expected, yet not certain. Prepare even if you do not have to implement. Consider solutions like insurance when there is someone else who is happy to take the risk for you. For the other stuff, be prepared to take it on the chin. The challenge is how does one prepare for the unexpected?

One solution is a facilitated discussion. You get different people in the room to represent various perspectives. Structure the conversation so loud voices do not drown out the more subtle ones. Focus on looking at a range of views, actions and outcomes. There is a methodology which helps ensure a great outcome. In October I am hosting an evening titled: BRexit: Friend or Foe for Property Investors. I started researching the best way to apply scenario planning. Here are some insights and some ideas for how you can prepare for the unexpected rather than being the one caught out.

“[The] chief value of scenario planning is that it allows [decision]-makers to make and learn from mistakes without risking career-limiting failures in real life.”

Being able to think about outcomes without the risk of being wrong. Testing some ideas or pondering some options without being held accountable. Or, thinking of a hypothesis and then running some tests to discover the result.

The first and most important action is to accept you cannot predict the future. You can prepare for various possible futures
and then implement one of the them after the future arrives. Being prepared for a range of future states, rather than picking one and locking yourself in. You develop alternative plans and focus on what is common between the various plans. Get on with implementing the common elements as they are valid with a range of future scenarios.

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