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Playing Catch Up

Stephen Rees, Head of Real Estate at Coutts Bank comments

Markets tend to dislike uncertainty, and many investors chose to wait it out amid frenzied speculation about who would form the next Government, particularly in the residential market.

After a positive February, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) noted that the net balance of surveyors reporting new-buyer enquiries fell back into negative territory in March, before rallying in April. February and April aside, surveyors haven't reported rising numbers of buyers since last spring.

In London, the number of 'prime' transactions tumbled by a third in the first three months of 2015. And sales of property in the £1m-plus bracket decreased by 23% over a year earlier, according to the Land Registry. This pause in transactions has allowed the residential property market to catch its breath and now, with election clarity liable to unleash pent up demand, we expect to see more enquiries, more sellers and a jump in sales over the second half of the year.

That said, as the Conservative Party concentrates on its 'first 100 days' action plan, we suspect any decisions on long-term major infrastructure developments like Crossrail 2, High Speed 2, London's extra airport terminal and new towns are likely to be deferred - which may remove these property market drivers for now.

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