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Can We Really Expect Base Rates to Rise While The CPI is Falling?

We live in confusing times. Bad economic data is usually greeted by another surge in stock prices as investors breathe a sigh of relief that QE will continue, or at least base rates won't rise.

In early September, Colliers International chief economist, Dr Walter Boettcher, responded to the BoE statement that interest rates will remain unchanged by predicting that they will continue to remain at the same level until mid-2016. However, any base rate rise looked increasingly unlikely just a month later when the ONS reported that consumer price inflation (CPI) fell by 0.1% in the year to September, meaning that prices are cheaper than a year ago.

I interviewed Boettcher for further clarity, first asking him when exactly he expects the base rate to rise.

"December 2016 for the first UK base rate rise at the same time as Osborne releases his Autumn Statement and announces that the budget is almost balanced. Market forward rates suggest that the first UK base rate rise may not come until 2017. When I wrote the paper (in September) expectations of the first rise were already slipping.

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