If 2025 felt like a year of waiting - waiting for certainty, waiting for confidence, waiting for rates to finally loosen their grip - then 2026 is shaping up to be the year where the real opportunity in the commercial property market quietly plays out behind the headlines.

With more than 30 years in the sector, I’ve lived through several cycles, corrections, surprises, booms, busts, and every flavour of government intervention you can imagine. And I can tell you this with absolute confidence: the investors who succeed are never the ones watching for the perfect moment. They’re the ones who understand the cycle they’re in - and act accordingly.

So, let’s dive into my view of what 2026 has in store for the UK commercial property market, and why the next 12 months will continue to offer some of the best opportunities we’ve seen in years.

We’re Still in a Down Cycle - And That’s Exactly Where the Value Is
Commercial values have softened for a while now, and I don’t expect a dramatic turnaround in 2026. This isn’t a bad thing - it’s simply where we are in the cycle. But beware – you will hear the market being talked up right left and centre. Take your own view on this, because the most dangerous thing you can do in this market is to generalise across sectors and locations. More on this later…

Commercial yields continue to track Government bond yields closely. Unless UK bond yields fall meaningfully, we won’t see yields compress or values bounce sharply. And right now, that scenario
feels unlikely.

A continued down cycle is good news for buyers: fewer competitors, more realism from sellers, and much better pricing discipline.