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Mortgage changes may accelerate the Canadian property bubble, say big banks

Canadian banks have begun to weigh in on new mortgage changes, and they aren’t optimistic. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) announced a revision to the uninsured mortgage stress test. The change will shrink supersized mortgage budgets, reducing the number of over-leveraged borrowers.

Two of Canada’s largest banks say it’s a move in the right direction, but it is still not enough. Both don’t see the changes breaking the current mindset buyers have. One bank thinks it may actually accelerate home sales before the rules go into effect.

OSFI announced they would begin revising the uninsured mortgage “stress test.” The changes would see the five-year benchmark mortgage rate rise from 4.79% to 5.25% by 1 June 2021. The 46 basis point increase, drops the maximum borrower budget by 4.5%, compared to today’s rate, according to analysis by Matthieu Arseneau, the deputy chief economist at the National Bank of Canada (NCB). However, he added that original introduction of the stress test was to create a 22% decline in the maximum mortgage, so the new rules will clearly not have the same impact.

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