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Sales Market Continues to Slow, Now Leading to a Softening in House Prices

The November 2022 RICS UK Residential Survey results have revealed that overall activity continues to weaken across the sales market, with higher interest rates and a difficult macroeconomic outlook both taking their toll on buyer sentiment.

As a result, house prices have begun to fall according to the latest feedback, a trend that is expected to continue over the near-term at least. Looking at buyer demand, the headline net balance for new buyer enquiries came in at -38% in November, marking the seventh successive negative monthly reading for this indicator.

Although the latest reading is not quite as downbeat as the -53% seen last month, it still suggests momentum behind purchaser demand remains weak. For agreed sales, a national net balance of -35% of respondents reported a decline over the latest survey period. Again, this is marginally less negative than the reading of -45% posted in October, but continues to signal a contraction in sales volumes, nonetheless. Moreover, respondents across all parts of the UK cited a decline in agreed sales, the second consecutive month in which this has been the case.

Going forward, the three and 12-month sales expectations series returned net balances of -44% and -38% respectively, with both pointing to a further fall in sales activity.

Prices are reportedly retreating across most parts of the UK, with the latest feedback especially downcast in the South East and South West of England. For now, prices continue to edge higher in Scotland and Northern Ireland, albeit the pace of growth is significantly softer than earlier in the year.

In the coming 12-months, an aggregate net balance of -61% of contributors foresee a further decline in house prices, down from an already weak reading of -48% last month. Virtually all parts of the UK exhibit negative price expectations for the year ahead, with projections being downgraded between the October and November survey results in most cases.

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