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Australian house prices fall in third quarter

House prices in Australia fell by -2.4% in the September quarter of 2011, accelerating from a drop of -2% in the June quarter, according to a survey by National Australia Bank.

By state, prices fell by -3.8% in Victoria, -3.2% in Queensland, -2.9% in South Australia and the Northern Territory, -1.1% in New South Wales and -0.8% in Western Australia, the survey showed.

The National Australia Bank residential property index fell to -14 in September, from a reading of -5 in June.

The September survey indicated that Australian house prices are likely to remain subdued in the near-term and fall by a further -1% over the next 12 months.

Prices in Victoria are expected to fall by -3.2% over the next year, while Queensland prices are expected to drop by -1.7%.

However, property prices in Western Australia are expected to climb 1.5% next year, according to the survey.

By September 2013, national house prices are expected to be back in positive territory and showing growth of 0.5%. Western Australia is expected to lead the growth, with prices forecast to rise by 3.4% by then.

However, National Australia Bank economists said that they believe the expectations contained in the survey are overly pessimistic. The economists also disagreed with the survey’s findings on interest-rate expectations which showed that 20% of respondents now expect interest rates to be higher over the next 12 months, compared with 71% in the June survey, and that interest rates are expected to fall by 20 basis points over the next 12 months.

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