The Centre for Business and Economic Research (Cebr) latest UK housing forecast show average house prices rising from 2011 to 2016 by 15% - starting with a modest 1.6% rise in 2012.

Because of greater weakness in the economy and especially in disposable income since our previous forecasts were published, the Cebr forecasts for 2012 and for the years thereafter have been revised down slightly. However, the new Cebr forecast remains more optimistic than those of many other market commentators.

Cebr argue that the weakness of the economy is likely to lead to increased QE, which it estimates will probably have its biggest real economy impact on the housing market.

From 2012-2016, house prices are forecast to rise gradually, because of a persistent shortage of housing, even after the recent government measures to boost housebuilding announced on 21 November are taken into account.

Housebuilding is forecast to grow only slowly over the next four years and consequently, with population growth and falling household size, there is likely to be an increasing shortage of accommodation. And these factors are likely to support rents and property values.

"Its important to realise that the UK has a housing shortage, which is shown by the rises in rents," said Douglas McWilliams, Cebr Chief Executive.

"In addition the very weakness of the economy which will almost certainly mean more quantitative easing means that gradually mortgages will be easier to come by.

"By 2016 we are forecasting 740,000 new mortgages - up from an estimated 560,000 this year, but only just over half the peak 2006 level. Both the shortage of demand and the growth in mortgage availability will push up house prices, but only slowly."