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UK commercial property yields up as uncertainty hits home

Uncertainty caused by the eurozone debt crisis contributed to the first widespread increase in UK commercial property prime yields since early 2009, according to data from Cushman & Wakefield. Average prime yields rose by four basis points to 5.72% in September, returning yields to the position of a year ago. Yields for shopping centres, shops, retail warehouses and offices increased but well-secured retail distribution units bucked the trend, with yields falling to 6%.

Although the outlook for growth has been impacted by the weaker economic environment, low interest rates and quantitative easing should help. Buyers are benefiting from some increase in investment supply, including prime property, helped by a release of stock by banks and administrators but also with more willing sellers and some profit-takers.

David Erwin, CEO UK Capital Markets for Cushman & Wakefield, said, "There is an air of distinct uncertainty around the property market with many non-core deals stalling and both buyers and vendors taking stock of their positions on a deal-by-deal basis. None of us wants stagnation however, and there is a growing sense that this current round of price adjustments could wash through quite quickly, allowing activity to recommence. There remains no shortage of capital for prime or realistically priced stock. Many would argue that the case for property has, if anything, improved in the last few weeks in a very uncertain investment environment."

David Hutchings, Head of the company’s European Research Group, also commented: "The market is clearly in a state of some uncertainty on where pricing should be but it looks like the drivers of value between prime and secondary are actually moving further apart. For secondary, economic conditions are not improving fast enough to deliver a better environment but for prime, low interest rates and a return of quantitative easing should be strongly positive for demand and hence any increases in yields for core property could well be reversed again in the next few months."

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